Welcome to the July issue of the Dashboard Newsletter. The first half of the year is over, and by every measure, it hasn't been a great one... Our homes have fallen in value, our investments have fallen in value, a new wave of Covid is sweeping through the county, the hospital system is showing cracks, the All Whites are out of the world cup, inflation is causing a "cost of living crisis", the Black Caps got thumped by England, there is a war raging in Europe, and even the usual certainty of All Black's victory is under threat from the Irish. You could be forgiven for feeling a bit glum at the moment - things sure do feel a bit uncertain... Uncertainty is funny thing though. You would think that uncertainty ebbs and flows - that sometimes there are greater periods of uncertainty than other times. Like right now, surely there is more uncertainty than there was 6 months ago, right? Wrong... the reality is that uncertainty is always there - it's simply our awareness of it that changes. The world is an uncertain and unpredictable place, and it would be reckless to think anything else. The following is the opening statement from Bill Clinton's "State of the Nation" speech in January 2000: "My fellow Americans, we are fortunate to be alive at this moment in history. Never before has our Nation enjoyed, at once, so much prosperity and social progress with so little internal crisis and so few external threats. Never before have we had such a blessed opportunity. We begin the new century with over 20 million new jobs; the fastest economic growth in more than 30 years; the lowest unemployment rates in 30 years; the lowest poverty rates in 20 years; the lowest African-American and Hispanic unemployment rates on record; the first back-to-back surpluses in 42 years; and next month, America will achieve the longest period of economic growth in our entire history. We have built a new economy. My fellow Americans, the state of our Union is the strongest it has ever been." WOW - that sounds amazing! January 2000 must have been a great time to be around - clearly no uncertainty then! But with the benefit of hindsight, we know that uncertainty was in fact, as usual, ever-present. Within 12 months of that speech, the twin towers had come down, the S&P500 had fallen sharply, and unemployment had risen to 6%. In fact, the 10 years following that speech included the "DotCom Bubble" and the Global Financial Crisis - an era now know as "the lost decade" in investment circles because share markets delivered a negative return over those 10 years. So the uncertainty was always there - we just weren't aware of it at the time. Remember too that uncertainty is not always a bad thing - sometimes things surprise us to the upside. Perhaps by the end of the year, there is a new fail-safe Covid treatment. Perhaps the Ukrainian conflict resolves itself. Perhaps a new form of energy is discovered that reduces our dependence on fossil fuel. Or most likely, perhaps something we haven't even conceived of yet revolutionises the world - like has happened so many times in history (think the light bulb, steam train, combustion engine, the internet, iPhone). So at times like these, it is more important than ever to take a deep breath, clear your thoughts, and remind yourself that all things will come to pass in the fullness of time. Yes, there is uncertainty - but no more or less than usual. A level head and a balanced perspective is all you need to see you through these "uncertain" times. Now is not the time for rushed decisions. Webinar: Over the past few months, I have had some clients express interest in seeing short videos from economists, fund managers, or market commentators. So in response, please see below a recording from a few weeks ago of a webinar hosted by Steve Binnie - Portfolio Manager at Castle Point Managed Funds. In this 15 minute presentation (with a few Q&As at the end), Steve gives his unique perspective of the current share market behaviour. Please remember that his views do not constitute financial advice. In terms of the markets, the past month has been extremely volatile. The end of June saw share markets fall significantly, but July has started reasonably well. All said and done, markets are mixed over the past month. The worst performers were the German Dax (-5%) and the Australian All Ords (-4.7%), and the best performing was New Zealand's NZX50 (+1.7%) and America's Dow Jones (+0.8%). Mortgage rates continued to rise (the average 2 year fixed mortgage rate now at 5.45%), and house prices continue to fall. Here are the numbers for the past 30 days:   In terms of your Select Wealth Management portfolio, you will be receiving your performance reports for the June quarter soon (if you haven't already received it). The numbers are ugly, and performance has been poor. In fact, based on our research, our portfolios have just experienced a 1 in 20 year negative event. We continue to monitor our portfolios versus peers every quarter, and I am pleased to say that our portfolios are competitive relative to the market, and the performance has been in line with my expectations given the current environment. Whilst this doesn't alter the fact that you have suffered a loss on your investment, hopefully it does give you some comfort that your portfolio is still robust and well constructed. Finally, a quick update on our Giving Back program. For the second half of 2022, I am delighted to announce that we will be working with Kaibosh Food Rescue. As we enter the second half of the year, inflation is at multi-decade highs and the phrase "cost of living crisis" is in the headlines every day. Many families are now struggling to put food on the table. So Kaibosh Food Rescue seems an appropriate charity to work with right now. Kaibosh Food Rescue operate in Wellington, the Hutt Valley, Kāpiti and Horowhenua. They have a dedicated team of more than 250 volunteers who rescue and sort food seven days a week. They collect food from "food donors" (supermarkets, bakeries, restaurants, cafes, etc.), and then redistribute it to charities and community groups that support people in need. Up to 60,000kg of quality surplus food is redistributed each month. This is the equivalent of 171,429 meals provided to those who need it most, as well as a 17,940kg reduction in carbon emissions. Kaibosh provides this service at no cost to food donors, charities or community groups. This is a great organisation doing some incredible work, and our goal is to raise $2,500 by the end of the year to donate to them. Keep up the great work Kaibosh!!! To keep track of the Giving Back program visit https://mifinancialplanning.co.nz/giving-back.html As always, thank you for your continued support by introducing friends, family and colleagues to our business as prospective clients - I really appreciate it. Warm regards Dave and the team at Makowem & Isaacs Financial Planning dave@mifinancialplanning.co.nz

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