| Welcome to the November issue of the Dashboard Newsletter. Congratulations to the All Blacks who have been crowned the world champions for the second consecutive world cup – a feat never achieved by any other team before. It's hard to believe that the final was only a few weeks ago – it seems a distant memory already. Much has happened since then...
The obvious starting place is this terrible Isis attack in France. Over 130 people were killed in 7 separate co-ordinated attacks across Paris. Over half of all these deaths were at 1 venue – the Bataclan Theatre where a heavy metal band was performing in concert. Gunman entered the venue and fired at random into the audience which an Isis statement has since labelled as "idolators at a festival of perversity". The irony is impossible to comprehend. It is hard to imagine that a constructive conversation, with the objective a peaceful outcome, can be had between the Western world and Isis. The 2 worlds seem too far apart at this stage. Instead France have launched an air strike on Isis strongholds in Syria dropping as many as 20 bombs on munitions depots, training camps and command centres. At this stage, it seems reasonable to expect that tensions will increase in the short term and that there will be increased military activity from both sides. It's a daunting prospect that will no doubt have severe consequences on both sides. Markets in Australasia and Asia have opened this morning for the first time since the attacks. The effect has been muted. Whilst these attacks are a horrific humanitarian issue, they do not have a material bearing in a business sense. Tonight's European open will be interesting – I think that markets will most likely trade down on sentiment but I expect that this will normalise over the course of the coming weeks as the focus moves back to business fundamentals. Fundamentals remain sound. In the UK, the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in 7 years (currently 5.3%). In the USA, a December rate hike is now considered a 70% probability with Boston's Fed President Eric Rosengren making the following statement that encouraged me with its balanced temperament, "Let's make sure this (the December rate hike) is actually a successful lift-off. Let's not tighten so much that we weaken the economy and create a negative shock, and let's make sure we don't delay for so long that we get built-up inflationary pressures that cause us to react more in the future". Locally our Reserve Banks of New Zealand and Australia left rates unchanged. All said and done, markets have been mixed over the past 30 days. Australia was the weakest with a 4% drop, while Japan and Germany were the strongest with 8% increases. New Zealand delivered a solid 3% return. The New Zealand currency drifted downwards – a trend that I imagine will continue in the medium to long term, and one that adds value as a New Zealand investor. House prices continue to rise sharply in Auckland dragging the national average up. This is one risk in New Zealand that continues to be a concern for the Reserve Bank and the government. Petrol prices remain low (under $2 a litre) meaning that there is a bit of spare cash in our pockets at the end of each month. This filters through to consumer confidence which hit a 6 month high in November according to the ANZ Consumer Confidence Survey. |
||||||
|
||||||
In terms of Select Wealth Management, you will by now have received your performance report for the period 1 April to 30 September 2015. If you have any questions about your report, please do not hesitate to contact me on 04 920 7061 or by email. I would also encourage that you register to receive future reports online. The new Discretionary Investment Management Service legislation requires that you now get 7 reports a year for your investment. That's a lot of trees and a lot of postage. The online portal is one way Select Wealth Management is trying to streamline the delivery of these reports and manage the cost. It's a great service and entirely free of charge to you. For those of you who are able to join us for a Christmas drink the 1st of December, I look forward to seeing you then. Otherwise if you would like to arrange a meeting to review your investment, please do not hesitate to contact me – I am here to help. Don't forget to get your Christmas shopping underway – only 5 more Mondays until the big fat fella comes... I look forward to catching up soon. Warm regards Dave Isaacs dave@mifinancialplanning.co.nz |
||||||
 |
||||||
This newsletter is intended for general distribution and does not constitute personal financial advice. Copy of my primary disclosure statement and secondary disclosure statement.